Asset Management Weekly Market Commentary

Market updates for the week ending
September 25, 2026

Key observations

• U.S. stock indices staged a surprising rally early in the week, only to close the week with a whimper as a sharp rise in Treasury yields tempered enthusiasm and weighed on risk appetite. Large caps outperformed small caps as investors appeared eager to crowd into the ‘Magnificent 7’ for stability and were willing to pay up for growth and visibility in the information technology sector as semiconductors and software stocks rallied on the week.
• Abroad, emerging markets outpaced developed markets behind strength out of South Korea and Taiwan as semiconductor and memory names domiciled there rallied. On the developed markets front, Japanese stocks held up relatively well despite continued weakness in the Japanese yen, which led to calls for the Bank of Japan to act more aggressively and hike policy rates when it meets again in late October.
• A sharp and unsettling rise in Treasury yields grabbed headlines as strong September economic data, saber rattling between the U.S. and Iran keeping upward pressure on energy prices, and a poorly received 5-year Treasury auction mid-week forced yields higher to levels last seen almost two decades ago. The rise in yields on longer-dated Treasuries weighed most heavily on investment grade corporate bonds, which experienced their largest weekly drawdown since mid-March.

What we're watching this week

• The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence survey for September on Tuesday. The reading is expected to improve to 90.0 from 89.4 in August, which would be notable given the rise in gasoline and diesel prices throughout September.
• August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the FOMC’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Wednesday. Headline PCE is expected to rise 0.4% month over month and 3.7% year over year, compared to readings of 0.2% and 3.7% last month. Core PCE, which is more closely watched by policymakers, is expected to rise 0.3% month over month and 3.3% year over year, which would compare to 0.2% and 3.3% readings in July.
• The September Nonfarm Payrolls report is released Friday with the consensus estimate calling for 100k jobs to have been created during the month, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable month over month at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month over month and 3.2% year over year, compared to 0.3% and 3.1% readings last month.