Asset Management Weekly Market Commentary

Market updates for the week ending
August 28, 2026

Key observations

• U.S. equity indices marked time in the lead-up to the release of Nvidia’s earnings mid-week, but the S&P 500 ultimately posted a positive week. Nvidia issued much stronger revenue guidance than expected, pointing to continued tailwinds for AI-related beneficiaries. Notably, software outperformed hardware on the week, with cybersecurity names big winners, which contributed to a 1.2% weekly gain out of the information technology sector. However, market leadership was narrow with tech’s gains coming at the expense of every other sector as the $440-plus billion that Nvidia tacked on to its market capitalization following its earnings release had to be sourced from somewhere.
• South Korea and Taiwan were notable bright spots abroad as Nvidia’s earnings announcement created some positive ‘pin action’ for semiconductor and memory names listed outside of the U.S. After providing a ballast for the MSCI EM index in July and the first half of August as Korea and Taiwan experienced bouts of unsettling volatility, Chinese stocks appeared to be sources of funds with the MSCI China index falling 1% on the week.
• Bonds rallied early in the week as the U.S. Treasury floated the idea of using its General Account to potentially fund larger monthly buybacks of off-the-run longer dated Treasuries should rates move uncomfortably higher. But the rally stalled as July inflation data proved ‘sticky’ and ‘hawkish’ comments out of FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday put upward pressure on yields across the curve. The 2-year yield jumped 12 basis points on Friday and finished the week higher by 11 basis points at 4.35% as the likelihood of a mid-September rate hike out of the FOMC jumped from around 35% mid-week to 57% on Friday on the heels of the FOMC Chair’s remarks.

What we're watching this week

• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases its Manufacturing index for August on Tuesday. The reading is expected to fall modestly to 55.2 from 55.6 in July. August would be the 8^th consecutive month with a reading above 50, the level viewed as the break point between expansion and contraction. The ISM Services index will be released on Thursday and is expected to be unchanged month over month at 54.1.
• The August Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on Friday, with the consensus estimate expecting 58k jobs to have been created during the month, which would compare to a loss of 23k jobs last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 0.3% month over month and 3% year over year, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% as it was last month. We will be focused on the absolute level of jobs growth during the month and on revisions to payrolls growth in the prior two months as well.